On paper, the similarities are nothing short of remarkable. Both enter the game with an 11-1 record and both lost to an 8-4 team that was unranked at the time of the game.
USC ranks 14th in overall offense, Penn State ranks 15th. The Trojans ranked 1st in overall defense and the Nittany Lions ranked 5th. The signature win for both teams this year was over the Buckeyes of Ohio State, 10th in the final BCS standings; USC 35-3 on September 13th and Penn State 13-6 on October 25th.
USC Will Win Because…
The case for the Trojans is fairly simple. Mark Sanchez is the current member of a long line of efficient college quarterbacks who has played under Pete Carroll. The Trojans have three running backs who have combined for 6 rushing days of over 100 yards (two each for Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson, and C.J. Gable), making it difficult for this team to lose any steam offensively if one or even two should go down with an injury or be ineffective in the game.
Their defense is just awesome. Despite the fact that they played in the relatively weak Pac-10, three of their stronger defensive efforts were in non-conference games. In those three games they outscored their opponents 125-13 and if Virginia had managed another win, all three of those teams would have been bowl eligible.
In short, they dominate defensively and when you do that, you’ll always have a very good chance to win.
Penn State Will Win Because…
As dominant as USC was on defense and as efficient as they were on offense, Penn State wasn’t far behind in any of those rankings. If there is an edge to be had for Penn State, it would be in those oh-so-important little things. Quarterback Daryll Clark was only intercepted 4 times in 285 pass attempts this year while Mark Sanchez threw 10 picks in 331 attempts.
Penn State also did slightly better this year in net punting and punt returning, two areas which are always crucial in a defensive slugfest, field-position type of game.
The Nittany Lions also had multiple running backs eclipse the 100 yard mark in a game this year but while the Trojans had three backs with 600+ yards this year but nobody with more than 700, Penn State handed the ball off to Evan Royster 185 times and he gained 1,202 yards. If he were to run well, he could very well carry Penn State to victory.
The Rose Bowl Winner is…
On paper, this is easily the most evenly matched game in the BCS slate this year and it has the makings of a close game given the punishing defenses and the relatively no-name offenses.
In the end coaching will probably make a big difference in this game. Joe Paterno is a legend and very well may go on coaching forever but this game will more than likely come down to in-game adjustments and Pete Carroll is one of the best in the country at just that. All in all, this game will not disappoint.
USC 13, Penn State 7
